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--- transportation:comets [2025/04/01 21:37] – [2024 YR4] timb
+++ transportation:comets [2025/12/05 20:53] (current) – [Analysis] timb
@@ Line 269: / Line 269: @@
 https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/amateur-astronomers-discover-an-asteroids-moon/
+== Most Carbon-Rich Asteroids Never Make It to Earth—and Now We Know Why ==
+A study of thousands of space rocks may explain why a common type in space is so uncommon on our planet.
+Isaac Schultz - April 14, 2025
+Earth’s meteorite collection just got called out for being a little biased—and what’s more, a team of astronomers pinpointed exactly why that bias occurs.
+Carbonaceous asteroids are all over our solar system, both in the main belt and closer to Earth. But very few of the carbon-rich rocks are actually found on Earth, comprising just 4% of the meteorites recovered on our planet’s surface.
+The astronomical team wanted to understand what causes the discrepancy. Their findings, published today in Nature Astronomy, indicate that carbon asteroids get obliterated by the Sun and Earth’s atmosphere before they can make it to ground.
+“We’ve long suspected weak, carbonaceous material doesn’t survive atmospheric entry,” said Hadrien Devillepoix, a researcher at Australia’s Curtin Institute of Radio Astronomy and co-author of the paper, in a university release. “What this research shows is many of these meteoroids don’t even make it that far: they break apart from being heated repeatedly as they pass close to the Sun.”
+https://gizmodo.com/most-carbon-rich-asteroids-never-make-it-to-earth-and-now-we-know-why-2000588954
@@ Line 418: / Line 433: @@
 https://gizmodo.com/earths-in-the-clear-from-menacing-asteroid-in-2032-but-our-moon-might-not-be-2000583502
+== NASA doubles odds of Moon hitting near-Earth asteroid ==
+Heads up to those living on lunar base in 2032: DUCK!!
+Iain Thomson - Sat 5 Apr 2025 07:18 UTC
+The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon, during Christmas 2032, has more than doubled.
+The space rock made headlines in February when it was said to be the most dangerous object of its kind in the Solar System to Earth. Sadly, the chance of it whacking our home world was cut to 0.004 percent following further observations. Now scientists reckon there's nearly a one-in-25 chance of YR4 slamming into Earth's natural satellite.
+"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 as of late February to 3.8 percent," the agency said this week.
+"There is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit."
+The asteroid was spotted by an automatic telescope on Christmas Day last year, and its potential to smash into Earth was figured out a few days later. After its orbit was further studied, NASA suggested the Moon could also get in its way, at first estimating the chance of lunar impact at 0.3 percent.
+https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/05/nasa_moon_asteroid/
+== Rising odds asteroid that briefly threatened Earth will hit moon ==
+The GIST - April 3, 2025
+Scientists are now hoping that the asteroid will smash into the Moon.
+A huge asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has a nearly 4% chance of smashing into the moon, according to new data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
+The asteroid, thought to be capable of leveling a city, set a new record in February for having the highest chance—3.1%—of hitting our home planet than scientists have ever measured.
+Earth's planetary defense community leapt into action and further observations quickly ruled out that the asteroid—called 2024 YR4—will strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
+But the odds that it will instead crash into Earth's satellite have been steadily rising.
+After the Webb telescope turned its powerful gaze towards the asteroid last month, the chance of a moon shot is now at 3.8%, NASA said.
+"There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the moon," NASA said in a statement on Thursday.
+Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defense office, told AFP that this aligned with their internal estimates of around 4%.
+https://phys.org/news/2025-04-odds-asteroid-briefly-threatened-earth.html
+== Asteroid With 3.8% Chance of Hitting the Moon Originated From an Unusual Spot ==
+Astronomers have traced the origin of asteroid 2024 YR4, which appears to have broken off from a larger space rock.
+Passant Rabie - April 9, 2025
+A newly discovered asteroid is on track for a close brush with Earth—and it might even slam into the Moon. Recently, astronomers got a closer look at the giant space rock, revealing its violent origin story.
+Using the Keck Observatory on Maunakea, Hawaiʻi Island, a team of astronomers was able to identify the physical properties of asteroid 2024 YR4 and uncover its potential origin. The menacing asteroid may have broken off from a larger space rock following a collision. It also likely originated from an asteroid family in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter—an unlikely place for Earth-crossing asteroids to come from.
+“The shape of the asteroid provides us with clues as to how it formed, and what its structural integrity is,” Bryce Bolin, research scientist with Eureka Scientific, said in a statement. “Knowing these properties is crucial for determining how much effort or what kind of technique needs to be used to deflect the asteroid if it is deemed a threat.” This research is set for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
+https://gizmodo.com/asteroid-with-3-8-chance-of-hitting-our-moon-originated-from-an-unusual-spot-2000586505
+== NASA Raises Odds of Asteroid Smacking the Moon in 2032 ==
+Asteroid 2024 YR4, which previously posed the highest impact risk to Earth ever recorded, has now been assessed a slightly higher chance of slamming into the Moon in seven years.
+Ellyn Lapointe - June 10, 2025
+The odds of an asteroid the size of a 10-story building slamming into the Moon in 2032 have risen slightly, according to NASA. On June 5, the agency announced that Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 4.3% chance of lunar impact—up from 3.8%.
+This infamous space rock caused quite a stir earlier this year when initial data suggested it could collide with Earth in about eight years. But as scientists gathered more data, it became clear that this asteroid posed no threat to our planet. There’s still a chance, however, that 2024 YR4 could hit the Moon. New observations from the James Webb Space Telescope allowed scientists to refine the asteroid’s orbit, leading to this tiny increase in the odds of a lunar impact.
+“As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve,” NASA’s announcement states.
+When the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile first discovered 2024 YR4 in December 2024, NASA flagged it as a potentially hazardous object almost immediately. Initial calculations indicated that this asteroid had about a 1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Over the next few weeks, those odds alarmingly climbed to nearly 3% before ultimately settling back down to zero by late February.
+https://gizmodo.com/nasa-raises-odds-of-asteroid-smacking-the-moon-in-2032-2000613835
+== Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon increases ==
+Scientists improve knowledge by 20% thanks to James Webb Space Telescope data
+Richard Speed - Tue 10 Jun 2025 17:45 UTC
+The chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon has increased, according to boffins making observations from the James Webb Space Telescope.
+NASA said data from the telescope "improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20 percent." The upshot is that there is now a 4.3 percent possibility that the asteroid will hit the Moon in 7.5 years' time, although it wouldn't alter the natural satellite's orbit.
+When Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected, scientists reckoned it had a 1 in 100 chance of colliding with the Earth in 2032. As the weeks passed, and more measurements of the asteroid's trajectory were made, that figure gradually increased before eventually being cut to almost zero.
+However, there remains a risk, albeit small, that it might smack into the Moon. In April, NASA put the probability at 3.8 percent. Experts from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California have now ncreased the probability to 4.3 percent.
+According to NASA, "An international team led by Dr Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, made the observations using Webb's Near-Infrared Camera in May."
+https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/10/asteroid_2024_yr4_update/
+== An Asteroid Could Smash Into the Moon in 2032. Here’s Why We Should Destroy It ==
+Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 4% chance of smashing into the Moon in about seven years. Astronomers are already working out ways to prevent a potential impact.
+Ellyn Lapointe - September 21, 2025
+Asteroid 2024 YR4 garnered global attention last year when astronomers estimated it could hit Earth in 2032. Though they have since ruled out that possibility, this large space rock still has a 4% chance of smashing into the Moon.
+Those are pretty slim odds, but on the off chance 2024 YR4 does end up on a collision course with the Moon, the scientific community needs to be prepared. Astronomers have found evidence to suggest that a lunar impact could eject an enormous amount of micrometeoroid debris into low-Earth orbit, potentially endangering spacecraft and astronauts aboard the International Space Station.
+A new study by researchers from NASA and several other U.S. institutions lays out our options for avoiding this worst-case scenario. In the paper—submitted to the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences for peer review and made available on the preprint server arXiv—the authors assess multiple strategies for deflecting or destroying the asteroid before it can slam into the lunar surface. Their conclusion? It looks like blowing it up would be our best bet.
+https://gizmodo.com/an-asteroid-could-smash-into-the-moon-in-2032-heres-why-we-should-destroy-it-2000661550
@@ Line 458: / Line 577: @@
 https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/25/nasa_scout_asteroid_prediction/
+===== Chesapeake Bay (35M years ago) =====
+== Evidence of Ancient Asteroid Impact and Tsunami Found in North Carolina ==
+An asteroid that struck Chesapeake Bay 35 million years ago left a long trail of destruction in its wake, new research suggests.
+Passant Rabie - September 13, 2025
+Around 35 million years ago, a small asteroid traveling at 40,000 miles per hour (64,373 kilometers per hour) struck Earth, crashing into the Atlantic Ocean near the modern-day town of Cape Charles, Virginia. The approximately 3-mile-wide (5-kilometer) object created a large impact crater that’s buried half a mile beneath Chesapeake Bay. Hundreds of miles south of the crater, scientists have found new evidence of the asteroid impact and the tsunami that followed the shattering event.
+Hidden beneath the waters of the Chesapeake, the impact crater in Virginia is among the largest and most preserved craters found on Earth. The Chesapeake Bay crater was first discovered in 1990, and scientists are still trying to piece together the trail of destruction left by the asteroid. A team of geologists investigating fossils in Moore County, North Carolina, uncovered layers of rock they determined were forged by the asteroid impact and the tsunami that followed.
+In a recently published study in Southeastern Geology, scientists document the far-reaching impact of the asteroid collision, detailing the discovery of a site found approximately 240 miles (386 km) away from the Virginia crater in the Sandhills of North Carolina.
+https://gizmodo.com/evidence-of-ancient-asteroid-impact-and-tsunami-found-in-north-carolina-2000657598
@@ Line 489: / Line 625: @@
-===== Defense =====
+===== Defense / Deflect =====
 == This Nonprofit Wants to Catapult Material From Incoming Asteroids to Protect Earth ==
@@ Line 504: / Line 640: @@
 https://gizmodo.com/nonprofit-aims-catapult-asteroid-materials-earth-defens-1850592844
+== Deflecting a Killer Asteroid Is More Complicated Than NASA Thought ==
+Scientists still have much to learn about the potentially life-saving "kinetic impactor technique."
+Ellyn Lapointe - July 11, 2025
+In 2022, NASA rammed a spacecraft into an asteroid to see if it could alter its orbital period around its parent asteroid. The mission, dubbed the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), aimed to determine whether humanity could theoretically save itself from a catastrophic asteroid impact.
+DART collided with Dimorphos, a small moonlet orbiting a larger asteroid called Didymos, on September 26, 2022. The results of the impact blew NASA’s expectations out of the water, shortening Dimorphos’s orbital period by 32 minutes. Such a change would be more than enough to deflect a dangerous asteroid away from Earth, indicating that this strategy—the kinetic impactor technique—could save us if necessary. New research, however, complicates this success story. An investigation into the debris DART left behind suggests this technique, when applied to planetary defense, isn’t as straightforward as scientists initially thought.
+“We succeeded in deflecting an asteroid, moving it from its orbit,” said study lead author Tony Farnham, a research astronomer at the University of Maryland, in a statement. “Our research shows that while the direct impact of the DART spacecraft caused this change, the boulders ejected gave an additional kick that was almost as big. That additional factor changes the physics we need to consider when planning these types of missions.” Farnham and his colleagues published their findings in The Planetary Science Journal on July 4.
+https://gizmodo.com/deflecting-a-killer-asteroid-is-more-complicated-than-nasa-thought-2000627783
+== Remember That Asteroid NASA Deflected in a Test of Saving Earth? We Have Bad News ==
+"Something unknown is at work here."
+Jul 11, 8:57 AM EDT - Victor Tangermann
+In late 2022, NASA celebrated its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) as a massive success, a proof of concept for saving humanity in case a similar space rock were to ever head straight for Earth.
+The small spacecraft smashed into asteroid Didymos' moonlet Dimorphos at a violent 14,000 mph, knocking it severely off course.
+But three years later, astronomers found that the collision had some unintended consequences. As detailed in a paper published last week in the Planetary Science Journal, a team led by the University of Maryland found that the DART spacecraft ejected a massive barrage of boulders, some of which carried more than three times the energy of the spacecraft itself.
+"We succeeded in deflecting an asteroid, moving it from its orbit," said lead author and UMD research scientist Tony Farnham in a statement about the research. "Our research shows that while the direct impact of the DART spacecraft caused this change, the boulders ejected gave an additional kick that was almost as big."
+The researchers warn that much like a game of pool, smashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to save the Earth could set off a powerful sequence of events that needs to be taken into account.
+"That additional factor changes the physics we need to consider when planning these types of missions," Farnham added.
+https://futurism.com/asteroid-nasa-dart-unexpected
@@ Line 697: / Line 870: @@
+===== Venus =====
+== Undetected, Dangerous Asteroids Could Be Lurking in Venus’s Orbit ==
+A new study warns of an undiscovered population of asteroids that could strike Earth with little to no warning.
+Passant Rabie - September 26, 2025
+Space can be a dangerous place, with massive rocks hurling through the solar system at fast speeds, some of which may be headed in our direction. NASA and other agencies keep a close watch on the skies, on the lookout for potentially hazardous asteroids that threaten Earth. As it turns out, however, a unique group of potentially problematic asteroids may be hiding in plain sight.
+A group of researchers are warning of the potential threat of asteroids that share the orbit of Venus, circling the Sun at a close distance to Earth—but they’re practically invisible to our current observational tactics. In a recent study published in the Astronomy & Astrophysics journal, scientists reveal a population of potentially dangerous asteroids, which would appear in telescopic observations around two weeks before a potential impact on Earth.
+https://gizmodo.com/undetected-dangerous-asteroids-could-be-lurking-in-venuss-orbit-2000664077
@@ Line 947: / Line 1136: @@
 https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-asteroid-bennu-sample-reveals-mix-of-lifes-ingredients/
+== Sugars, ‘Gum,’ Stardust Found in NASA’s Asteroid Bennu Samples ==
+Abby Tabor & Aaron L. Gronstal & Erin Morton & Rachel Barry - Dec 02, 2025
+The asteroid Bennu continues to provide new clues to scientists’ biggest questions about the formation of the early solar system and the origins of life. As part of the ongoing study of pristine samples delivered to Earth by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer) spacecraft, three new papers published Tuesday by the journals Nature Geosciences and Nature Astronomy present remarkable discoveries: sugars essential for biology, a gum-like substance not seen before in astromaterials, and an unexpectedly high abundance of dust produced by supernova explosions.
+Sugars essential to life
+Scientists led by Yoshihiro Furukawa of Tohoku University in Japan found sugars essential for biology on Earth in the Bennu samples, detailing their findings in the journal Nature Geoscience. The five-carbon sugar ribose and, for the first time in an extraterrestrial sample, six-carbon glucose were found. Although these sugars are not evidence of life, their detection, along with previous detections of amino acids, nucleobases, and carboxylic acids in Bennu samples, show building blocks of biological molecules were widespread throughout the solar system.
+For life on Earth, the sugars deoxyribose and ribose are key building blocks of DNA and RNA, respectively. DNA is the primary carrier of genetic information in cells. RNA performs numerous functions, and life as we know it could not exist without it. Ribose in RNA is used in the molecule’s sugar-phosphate “backbone” that connects a string of information-carrying nucleobases.
+https://www.nasa.gov/missions/osiris-rex/sugars-gum-stardust-found-in-nasas-asteroid-bennu-samples/
+== Sugars, 'Gum,' Stardust Found In NASA's Asteroid Bennu Samples ==
+Posted by BeauHD on Thursday December 04, 2025 11:07PM
+NASA's OSIRIS-REx samples from asteroid Bennu have revealed bio-essential sugars, a never-before-seen "space gum" polymer, and unusually high levels of supernova-origin dust. The findings bolster the RNA-world hypothesis, suggest complex organics formed early on Bennu's parent body, and show preserved presolar grains that escaped alteration for billions of years.
+"All five nucleobases used to construct both DNA and RNA, along with phosphates, have already been found in the Bennu samples brought to Earth by OSIRIS-REx," said lead scientist Yoshihiro Furukawa of Tohoku University. "The new discovery of ribose means that all of the components to form the molecule RNA are present in Bennu."
+The findings have been published in three new papers by the journals Nature Geosciences and Nature Astronomy. NASA also published a video on YouTube detailing the discovery.
+https://science.slashdot.org/story/25/12/04/2237242/sugars-gum-stardust-found-in-nasas-asteroid-bennu-samples